Libya’s political collapse

Ghana’s Warning on Libya’s Role in Escalating Sahel Terrorism

President John Dramani Mahama has directly linked the ongoing political and security breakdown in Libya to the surge in terrorism and violent extremism in the Sahel region. Speaking at the High-Level Consultative Conference on Regional Cooperation and Security in Accra in late January 2026, Mahama framed Libya’s instability as a critical factor in the broader crisis afflicting West Africa and the Sahel. His remarks underscore how the absence of a unified Libyan government and the proliferation of armed factions have created permissive environments for extremist groups to operate, train, and expand their reach.

Mahama’s analysis aligns with recent assessments from regional and international observers, who note that Libya’s post-Gaddafi fragmentation has allowed terrorist networks—including those affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State—to exploit the power vacuum. The country’s porous borders and weak state institutions have facilitated the movement of fighters, weapons, and funds across the Sahel, exacerbating conflicts in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The January 2026 conference, convened by Ghana, sought to address these interconnected threats through renewed regional cooperation, with Mahama emphasizing that no single nation can effectively counter them alone.

Sahel’s Deepening Security Crisis and the Failure of Past Cooperation Efforts

Mahama’s call for collective action reflects the deepening security crisis in the Sahel, where terrorist groups have intensified attacks against governments, military forces, and civilian populations. In Mali, for example, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and other armed factions have escalated operations, including coordinated strikes on Malian army positions and Russian-backed forces. These developments have destabilized the entire subregion, with spillover effects extending into Niger, Burkina Faso, and even Ghana’s northern border areas.

At the Accra conference, Mahama cited the recent violent attack in Niger as a stark reminder of the existential threat posed by extremist groups. He described the situation as a “defining moment” for West Africa, where fragmentation and mistrust among regional actors have weakened the ability to respond effectively. The president’s remarks highlighted the need to rebuild trust and forge a renewed framework for security cooperation, building on past initiatives like the Accra Initiative of 2017, which had sought to counter terrorism but was undermined by political realignments and the emergence of competing regional alliances, such as the Alliance of Sahelian States.

How Libya’s Fragmentation Fuels Extremist Networks in the Sahel

While Mahama did not specify Libya in his January remarks, his broader framing of the security crisis aligns with recent reporting and analysis. Libya’s post-2011 political chaos has created a haven for extremist groups, with some fighters moving between Libya and the Sahel to evade pressure from regional and international forces. The country’s oil-rich regions, in particular, have become financing hubs for terrorist networks, while its lawless areas serve as training grounds and logistics bases. The absence of a unified Libyan government has further complicated efforts to disrupt these networks, as rival factions and foreign actors—including Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates—compete for influence, often at the expense of counterterrorism cooperation.

International assessments, including those from the Atlantic Council and Stimson Center, have noted that Libya’s instability is directly contributing to the Sahel’s security deterioration. The Atlantic Council’s recent dispatch from Flintlock 2026, a joint US-African military exercise in Sirte, highlighted the challenges of coordinating counterterrorism efforts in a region where state collapse and foreign intervention have created a complex security landscape. The Stimson Center’s analysis of the EU’s role in Libya further underscores how external actors’ technocratic approaches have failed to address the root causes of instability, leaving a vacuum that extremist groups have exploited.

Ghana’s Proposed Framework for Regional Security Cooperation

Mahama’s vision for a renewed regional security framework emphasizes unity, trust, and collective responsibility. He stressed that West Africa’s interconnectedness—through trade, migration, and shared vulnerabilities—means that instability in one country reverberates across borders. His call for rebuilding consensus and drawing in all regional actors reflects a recognition that past fragmentation has hindered effective responses to terrorism and violent extremism.

At the Accra conference, Mahama reiterated Ghana’s commitment to initiating dialogue and fostering cooperation, while acknowledging the challenges posed by overlapping regional mechanisms and competing political agendas. He urged leaders to prioritize human security, preventive diplomacy, and collective resilience, framing these as essential components of a sustainable response to the crisis. The conference’s outcomes are expected to culminate in renewed commitments by Heads of State to strengthen regional solidarity, coordination, and action against shared threats.

The immediate test for Mahama’s vision will be whether regional leaders can translate rhetoric into action. The collapse of the Alliance of Sahelian States and the ongoing crises in Mali and Niger have exposed deep divisions, but also the urgent need for cooperation. The success of any renewed framework will depend on addressing Libya’s role as a source of instability, as well as on closing coordination gaps among regional organizations like ECOWAS and the African Union.

For now, the Sahel remains on fire, with terrorist groups gaining ground and state institutions struggling to respond. Mahama’s warning serves as a reminder that without a unified and inclusive approach, the region’s security crisis will continue to deepen, with Libya’s collapse serving as a cautionary tale of what happens when state failure and extremism go unchecked.