Counter-terrorism Operations

Tactical exploitation of weather in Mandaragiaro

The first strike occurred in the early hours of Friday morning at the Mandaragiaro base, located in the Biu area of Borno State. Militants utilized poor visibility and harsh weather conditions to launch the assault at dawn, a tactic that allowed them to strike before defenses could fully react to the shifting environment.

According to uaebarq.ae, this Friday raid resulted in the deaths of five soldiers. While the militants gained an initial advantage through the weather, the military attempted to stabilize the perimeter.

“The Nigerian forces repelled the attackers, and the spokesperson explained that the Nigerian forces managed to repel the attack and inflict losses on the attackers, despite the assault being carried out under difficult weather conditions, confirming the continuation of security operations in the area.

The military also reported the deaths of three local militia members who were supporting the army during the engagement. Although the forces managed to inflict casualties on the attackers, the loss of life highlights the vulnerability of outposts in the Biu region during periods of low visibility.

The Nigerian Army’s media unit confirmed that the Biu sector command has since mobilized additional reconnaissance patrols and increased aerial surveillance to secure the perimeter of the Biu local government area. Local observers reported that the dawn assault coincided with heavy seasonal rainfall and thunderstorms, which hampered the ability of the military’s quick-reaction forces to coordinate via radio during the initial minutes of the engagement.

The collapse of the Gaji-gana outpost

The second incident, which took place earlier in the week on Wednesday, targeted a military base in the town of Gaji-gana. Situated approximately 50 kilometers from Maiduguri, the state capital, the base was subject to a violent clash that left three soldiers dead.

Unlike the Mandaragiaro engagement, where the military repelled the assault, the Gaji-gana base suffered near-total destruction. Ibrahim Liman, a member of a local militia, reported that the attackers seized weapons and set the base on fire during the chaos.

Intelligence sources cited by roayahnews.com indicated that the base was completely destroyed following the withdrawal of military forces. The loss of weaponry during this raid represents a significant tactical setback for regional security.

Following the raid, security coordinators in Maiduguri confirmed that the stolen materiel included several standard-issue assault rifles, light machine guns, and large quantities of small-arms ammunition. The Borno State Government has since issued a formal security alert for the axis connecting Maiduguri to Gaji-gana, citing concerns that the loss of the outpost creates a tactical vacuum in the immediate periphery of the state capital.

The shadow of Abu Bilal al-Munaki

The timing of these dual strikes points toward a specific retaliatory motive. Local intelligence and military sources have linked the attacks to elements of ISIS – West Africa Province (ISWAP). The violence follows the death of Abu Bilal al-Munaki, a high-ranking figure identified as the second-in-command of the organization.

Al-Munaki was killed on May 16 during a joint operation involving both Nigerian and American forces. The subsequent attacks on Gaji-gana and Mandaragiaro suggest that the group is actively seeking to demonstrate its continued operational capacity despite the loss of its leadership.

The May 16 operation was characterized by military officials as a high-precision strike enabled by shared signals intelligence (SIGINT) and real-time data between the Nigerian Armed Forces and international partners. This intelligence-led approach targeted al-Munaki’s movement patterns within the Sambisa Forest periphery, though the subsequent attacks on Gaji-gana and Mandaragiaro demonstrate that ISWAP’s decentralized cells remain capable of independent, high-impact operations without centralized command.

Escalation risks for Nigerian security forces

These developments underscore the persistent instability in northeast Nigeria, an insurgency that has been ongoing since 2009. The conflict involving Boko Haram and ISWAP has already resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions of people.

The recent pattern of attacks suggests that the destruction of high-value targets, such as al-Munaki, may trigger a period of intensified insurgent activity rather than a decline in violence. As aletihad.ae notes, military operations are continuing in the region, but the ability of militants to exploit weather and conduct coordinated raids remains a critical challenge for the state.

The Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which coordinates security efforts across the Lake Chad Basin, has also been monitoring this shift in insurgent tactics. Regional security analysts suggest that the move from large-scale territorial control toward high-impact, hit-and-run raids on isolated outposts reflects a strategic adaptation by ISWAP to minimize losses from aerial surveillance while maximizing psychological impact.

In the coming weeks, security forces will likely face increased pressure to secure remote outposts that are susceptible to both weather-based tactical advantages and retaliatory strikes. The loss of equipment at Gaji-gana further complicates the ability of local units to maintain a presence in the areas surrounding Maiduguri. This heightened activity is expected to necessitate a more robust presence of armored patrols along the Maiduguri-Biu corridor to protect supply lines and prevent further isolated strikes on remote installations.