Latvian electricity prices surged to 100.19 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the first week of May 2026, more than doubling from the previous week, according to AS “Latvenergo” and regional energy market data.
Electricity Prices in Latvia Double Amid Regional Market Shock
Electricity prices in Latvia have more than doubled in the first week of May 2026, reaching an average of 100.19 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), according to data from AS “Latvenergo” and reported by LETA. This sharp increase is not isolated; across the Baltic region, wholesale electricity prices have uniformly doubled compared to the week prior, with Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all experiencing similar spikes.
The wholesale market price in Latvia and Lithuania reached 112.46 euros/MWh, while Estonia saw 111.67 euros/MWh. These figures align closely with prices in other European markets, such as Germany (110.62 euros/MWh) and Poland (112.94 euros/MWh). The system price, however, remains significantly lower at 63.40 euros/MWh, a more than threefold increase from the previous week.
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Market Forces Behind the Surge
The dramatic price increase is primarily attributed to a steep decline in wind power generation across the Nord Pool region. In the Baltics, wind energy output fell by 50% compared to the previous week, while in the Nordic countries, it dropped by 48%. This reduction in renewable energy supply, combined with a 21% decrease in electricity imports into the Baltic states, has tightened regional energy markets.
In Latvia, electricity consumption remained stable at 132 GWh, while production surged by 64% to 148 GWh. Despite this, the country’s self-sufficiency ratio rose to 112%, indicating a temporary balance between supply and demand. However, the broader Baltic region saw a 9% increase in total production, reaching 428 GWh, with Lithuania experiencing a 16% decline in output.
Lower wind generation and reduced imports have forced the region to rely more heavily on more expensive energy sources, driving up prices. Additionally, the unplanned outage of the Estonia-Sweden interconnector “Estlink 2” has further constrained regional energy flows, limiting imports from Nordic countries. The remaining capacity of “Estlink 1” (358 MW out of a total 1016 MW) has exacerbated the situation, as repairs are not expected to be completed until August 2026.
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Regional and European Context
The Baltic states are not alone in facing elevated electricity prices. Across the Nord Pool region, which includes Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark, wholesale prices have also risen sharply. The total electricity consumption in the Nord Pool region reached 9194 GWh, while production hit 9908 GWh. However, the sharp decline in wind energy—down 18% in the Nord Pool region and 3% in the Baltics—has been a key factor in the price spike.
Solar energy generation has seen modest increases, with a 5% rise in the Nord Pool region and a 17% increase in the Baltics. However, these gains have been insufficient to offset the drop in wind power. Meanwhile, nuclear energy availability in the Nordic countries fell to 59% of capacity, further tightening supply.
In Latvia, electricity consumption decreased by 6% compared to the previous week, while Lithuania saw an 18% increase. Estonia’s consumption dropped by 12%, reflecting varying regional demand patterns. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend in the Baltic region has been a 2% increase in total consumption, reaching 522 GWh.
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What Comes Next?
The immediate outlook for electricity prices in Latvia and the Baltics remains uncertain. While the current spike is largely driven by short-term supply constraints—particularly the drop in wind energy and reduced imports—the situation could stabilize if weather conditions improve or if additional energy sources become available.
However, structural challenges, such as the prolonged outage of key interconnectors and the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels, may continue to influence regional energy markets. Consumers are advised to monitor their contracts and explore options such as dynamic pricing, which may offer some protection against further volatility.
For now, the sharp increase in electricity prices serves as a reminder of the fragility of energy markets in the face of unpredictable weather and infrastructure limitations. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this surge is a temporary blip or the beginning of a longer-term trend.
