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The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has calculated that Western aid promised to Ukraine has fallen by nearly 90% since 2022, even before the US and EU failed to approve additional funding this month.

According to the Financial Times: “Abandoning Ukraine would be an option. There is an alternative. Russia has a low-tech economy comparable in size to Canada. Europe can help Ukraine fight Putin even if Trump withdraws We will have to build up our arms industry quickly, but the effort required on our part will be small compared to that of Russia.

According to the Kiel Institute, we also need to replace US aid to Ukraine – 71.4 billion euros in the first 21 months of the war, or 40.8 billion euros annually.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg wrote: “With more than $110 billion in support mired in political disputes in Washington and Brussels, how long will Kiev be able to hold off Russian forces and protect Ukraine?

In addition to the potentially dire consequences for Ukraine, some European allies have begun quietly considering the impact of a defeat on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the largest conflict in the world. Europe since World War II”.

Bloomberg claims, citing people familiar with internal conversations who requested anonymity, that Europe is overestimating the risks Russia could pose to NATO members in the east.

The ripple effects, these people say, will be felt around the world as America’s partners and allies question the credibility of Washington’s defense promises.

If Ukraine collapses, Russia’s threat to Eastern Europe would increase, since before the war, Ukraine served as a buffer zone between Russia and non-Baltic NATO members.

Quote from Bloomberg: “If Russia completely occupied Ukraine, it could establish new military bases in the west of the country and dispatch large forces there. To counter the potential threat to Eastern Europe, NATO will have to improve its defense measures at huge financial cost. Even so, it may not be able to defend against a Russian attack.”

In addition to doubts in the West about Ukraine’s ability to liberate all of the occupied territory, there also seem to be doubts about Ukraine’s capabilities. The armed forces hold territories under their control.

“There is growing concern about the lack of aid to Ukraine on both sides of the Atlantic and frustration at the prolonged stagnation,” said Kristine Berzina, executive director of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. with disastrous consequences on the battlefield”. The possibility of Ukraine losing more territory and even sovereignty – that is still on the negotiating table.”

According to European officials, Russia may try to seize more territory and destroy more infrastructure if Ukraine does not get the weapons it needs to defend itself.

If Ukraine cannot defend itself, they said, it could be forced to accept a ceasefire on Russia’s terms.

The situation on the front makes it increasingly clear that the war could drag on for years and that even the availability of aid may not produce a significant breakthrough.

Analysts also say the United States will have to choose between maintaining enough forces in Asia to protect Taiwan from a potential Chinese attack and preventing a Russian attack on NATO. The cost of deploying forces will continue as long as the Russian threat persists – possibly indefinitely.

And this does not take into account the possibility that Donald Trump could win the 2024 presidential election and fulfill his promise to withdraw from major alliances, including NATO, as well as reach an agreement with Putin on Ukraine.