Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Source Fox news
Many speculate that this issue was discussed at the rare meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in September.
Beijing, a close partner of both Pyongyang and Moscow, has remained silent on the growing relationship between the two sides, repeatedly saying that cooperation between them is a mutual matter and that China will do not interfere.
They were also silent in response to reports that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had proposed inviting North Korea to participate in trilateral naval exercises with China.
Observers say China is cautious about being drawn into a trilateral axis with Russia and North Korea, worried that this could cause a “new cold war” that promotes US interests and escalates. tensions in the region.
Bjorn Alexander Duben, a Northeast Asia studies expert at Jilin University in northeastern China, said Beijing wants to avoid engaging in “bloc building,” by strengthening its trilateral relationship with Beijing. Pyongyang and Moscow while the country has close bilateral relations with both.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Pak Myong-ho visited Beijing last week for private talks with top Chinese leaders.
Duben said: “In principle, China may be satisfied with the deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea. But in reality, their interests are also different. Russia and North Korea both have motives to cause trouble.” turmoil in the international system. The difference is that China (currently) is not interested in this, they have an interest in international stability.”
Beijing doesn’t mind minor crises that keep the US busy, he said, but it doesn’t want deeper global instability – especially in light of China’s unfavorable economic situation. “.
At the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden last month, the two leaders agreed to manage rising tensions between the two superpowers. However, there has been no breakthrough on key points of contention such as growing military competition in the Indo-Pacific.
The US and treaty allies Japan and South Korea have stepped up military coordination to tackle what they call an “increasingly assertive” China in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s relationship with its two East Asian neighbors has also become tense in recent years.
However, the meeting between China-Japan-South Korea foreign ministers last month provided a new opportunity to mend the relationship, with the aim of refocusing on economic cooperation.
Professor of international relations at Renmin University Shi Yinhong said that with recent signs of improving relations with the US, Japan and South Korea, it is difficult for China to participate in trilateral activities. side with Russia and North Korea to escalate tensions again, such as a joint military exercise.
“The situation on the Korean peninsula is still very dangerous. China does not think it needs to get closer to a close enough North Korea, which is one of the causes of high tension on the peninsula,” Shi said. .
Expert on China and North Korea issues at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Yongwook Ryu, said China is hesitant to participate in trilateral military exercises because it is worried that doing so would This will create a new “cold war” – something that China accuses the US of waging.
Chinese and American envoys to the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday traded blame as they met to discuss North Korea’s recent military activities, including missile launches intercontinental ballistics last week. North Korea’s fifth ICBM launch this year, the highest annual number ever, comes on the heels of a US plan to include nuclear operational drills in joint military exercises with South Korea. Korea, and there was information that a US nuclear submarine had docked in a Korean port.
US Representative Robert Wood asked China and Russia to join the rest of the council to “take action” on Pyongyang.
Beijing has been reluctant to condemn North Korea’s military buildup and oppose new Security Council sanctions, saying it will not solve the problem. Instead, they called for addressing Pyongyang’s legitimate security concerns and adopting a “dual standstill” approach to achieving denuclearization – requiring North Korea to freeze its nuclear and missile programs and South Korea and the United States stopped joint military exercises.
North Korea and the United States held several rounds of nuclear talks when former US President Donald Trump was in office, but those talks ended in deadlock after the two countries failed to agree on a common approach to nuclear weapons. denuclearize. Since then, Pyongyang has increased its missile launches and threatened to conduct its seventh nuclear test, while the United States and South Korea have expanded large-scale military exercises in response.
Observers say Beijing may want to maintain the status quo on the peninsula out of concern that putting too much pressure on North Korea could turn it into an enemy.
Ryu noted that given the growing US-China rivalry, it is in Beijing’s interest for Washington to be constrained by North Korea’s military threats.
Although Beijing does not intentionally incite instability and conflict on the Korean Peninsula, instability on the peninsula – short of an actual military conflict – would serve Beijing’s interests, he said. by diverting the attention and resources of the United States and its key allies such as Japan.”
“The extent to which Beijing prioritizes the Korean peninsula over other issues such as competition with the US and Taiwan is questionable. Therefore, it is highly doubtful whether Beijing will actually play a role in carrying constructive in restraining North Korea’s provocative behavior and to what extent,” Ryu added.
The international community has repeatedly called on China to help stop North Korea’s military aggression, but Beijing has often hinted that it does not have the necessary influence over Pyongyang.
“Good relations between China and North Korea and China’s influence on North Korea are two different concepts,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said in September when asked about the demand. Seoul’s demand for Beijing to do more to restrain Pyongyang.
In an interview with The Telegraph last month, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said China has an important role in regional stability and he believes China’s links with North Korea and Russia will not serve the interests of this country.
Daniel Russell, who served as US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs under former president Barack Obama, said Beijing’s “toughness” on closer links between Russia and North Korea because they do not want to take responsibility for the “incident”.
“Beijing does not want to pay the price or be responsible for North Korea’s provocative behavior that China has no control over,” said Russell, currently vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“Beijing offers rhetoric and other forms of support to Russia and North Korea, where China has essentially suffered no losses, but hesitates to publicly support its behavior when it There is a risk of retaliation or international condemnation,” Russell said.
Russell added that China may also be wary of the growing alignment of Russia and North Korea as it could weaken Beijing’s leverage over Pyongyang.
Mr Kim told Mr Putin that relations with Russia were a “top priority” for his country when the two met in September, sparking speculation about whether Pyongyang would shift from Beijing to Moscow. or not.
However, he appeared to want to assure Xi that relations between North Korea and China remained “close as usual”, as he wrote in a letter to the Chinese leader a week after meeting with Putin .
Deputy Foreign Minister Pak, the highest-ranking and first North Korean official to visit China after the Covid-19 pandemic, vowed during last week’s trip to strengthen ties to “protect common interests”. His visit raised speculation about paving the way for direct talks next year between Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim, who have not met since 2019.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, suspects there has been a shift in priorities in North Korea policy.
