Russian military

ISW notes that these targets overlap with Russia’s ongoing local offensive operations in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

Bild noted that Russia also plans to capture large parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkov oblasts, including the city of Kharkov, if possible in 2025 and 2026.

Bild, citing an internal source, also emphasized that Russia plans to occupy a large part of eastern Ukraine, located east of the Dnipro River, within the next 36 months.

Additionally, Russia wants to maintain the current front line in Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River. Russia is only interested in stopping the advance of Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine and towards Crimea.

Bild claims that Russia’s plans are based on the mobilization of Russia’s industrial and defense base, the annual loss of around 100,000 troops in grueling offensive operations, and the possibility of electing a new US president in 2024.

ISW noted that Bild had previously published largely accurate intelligence about Russia’s plans for a war in Ukraine in December 2021. At that time, Bild predicted that Russia would attack Ukraine in the south from Crimea, the Russian-controlled eastern part of Ukraine, and from the north. Indeed, the newspaper foresees an attack in late January or early February 2022.

ISW pointed out that it could not independently verify the authenticity of Bild’s reports. However, information about Russia’s plans for the war in Ukraine until 2026 is consistent with Russia’s preparations for prolonged military action.

The Russian military command is undergoing a long-term restructuring and expansion to build a strategic reserve force, and Russia is gradually mobilizing its armed forces to wage a protracted war.

ISW believes that reports of Russia’s medium and long-term plans to occupy territory outside the four illegally annexed territories are also justified, as the Russian military continues offensive operations to open extended their control over positions in Kharkov oblast.

In addition, Russian officials also made a statement about Russia’s intention to occupy and annex more Ukrainian territory beyond the current front line.

ISW recently assessed that a sudden cessation of Western aid could sooner or later undermine Ukraine’s ability to deter Russian troops and that in such a scenario, Russian forces could eventually reach the border. Western border of Ukraine.