Nine connected Polymarket accounts earned more than $2.4 million by placing winning bets on specific moments in the war with Iran, according to data from Bubblemaps. The accounts maintained a 98% win rate on more than 80 bets, including wagers on U.S. military strikes and the announcement of a ceasefire.
Digital investigators at the data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified a pattern of trading on the Polymarket prediction platform that suggests the use of nonpublic information. The firm’s analysis focused on a cluster of nine anonymous accounts that achieved near-perfect accuracy when betting on high-stakes military developments in the Middle East.
Bubblemaps Identifies High-Yield War Wagers
The findings, first shared with 60 Minutes, highlight a cluster of accounts that made winning bets on specific dates related to U.S. military actions during the war with Iran. These included the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. According to Bubblemaps, these nine accounts made more than 80 bets with a 98% win rate.
The profitability of these trades was particularly notable because many wagers were placed when the statistical odds of winning were low. The success of these accounts has drawn scrutiny from analysts who argue that such results are mathematically improbable through standard market participation.
This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far. Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.
Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO
Long-Shot Bets Defy Statistical Odds
A separate investigation by The New York Times, conducted by Stuart A. Thompson and David Yaffe-Bellany, has cataloged various indications of insider activity across the platform. Their reporting indicates that dozens of long-shot bets—ranging from outcomes in the war with Iran to movements in the cryptocurrency market—have defied standard probabilistic expectations.
This trend occurs as prediction markets experience a surge in volume. This year, more than $1 billion has been staked online on military decisions and outcomes. The platform presents a unique structural paradox: while the individual traders remain anonymous, the entirety of the trade data is transparent and public. This transparency allows firms like Bubblemaps to perform wide-ranging analysis on connection patterns between accounts, even when the identities of the users are shielded.
Regulatory Scrutiny and New Categories of Fraud
The rise of these markets has created a new frontier for financial misconduct. Legal experts note that the ability to wager on geopolitical events creates a distinct category of information advantage. Last month, a U.S. Army soldier was indicted for allegedly using classified information to secure winning bets, illustrating the potential for military intelligence to leak into prediction markets.
The intersection of decentralized finance and geopolitical forecasting is testing existing oversight mechanisms. While prediction markets are often viewed as tools for gauging public sentiment, the concentrated success of specific accounts suggests they are being used to capitalize on information asymmetry.
This is a new kind of insider trading.
Rob Schwartz, partner at Morgan Lewis
Schwartz, who previously spent 13 years at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noted that the nature of these markets requires a different approach to policing fraud and insider activity. As the volume of money staked on military and political outcomes continues to grow, the pressure on regulators to define and enforce rules in these anonymous environments will likely increase.