Global Energy Security

Iran’s Attempt to Formalize Maritime Control

The nature of the conflict in the Persian Gulf is shifting from active combat to a struggle for administrative legitimacy. Iranian leaders are claiming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to move beyond mere survival toward a position of permanent control over one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints. This is not merely a military assertion but a bureaucratic one.

To cement this new status quo, Tehran has established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. This body is designed to extract payments from transiting merchant vessels, a move intended to mimic the administrative functions of established entities like the Panama Canal Authority. By creating a formal mechanism for regulation and taxation, Iran is attempting to force the international community to recognize its de facto control through institutional acquiescence.

The objective is clear: if international shipping entities comply with these new protocols at scale, Iran will have successfully transitioned from a regional disruptor to a recognized maritime regulator. Without such recognition, however, the regime is forced to rely on more kinetic methods of enforcement, including the use of missiles, drones, and the seizure of commercial vessels to maintain its claims.

The Supreme Leader’s Ultimatum for Reparations

This pursuit of maritime control is inextricably linked to the regime’s broader economic and political objectives. The newly selected Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has framed the control of the strait as a tool for financial retribution against those participating in the conflict against Iran. This “new management” of the waterway is intended to serve as leverage to fine and impose costs on the Gulf states and other international actors.

We will seek reparations from the enemy, and if they refuse, we will take as much of their assets as we see fit, and if that is not possible, we will destroy that many of their assets.

Mojtaba Khamenei, via Critical Threats

Khamenei’s rhetoric suggests that the strait is no longer just a transit point but a source of state revenue and a weapon of economic coercion. By positioning the strait as sovereign Iranian waters, the leadership intends to catalyze a new regional order where Tehran holds a veto over global maritime access.

A Paradoxical Equilibrium of Maritime Blockades

At the operational level, the standoff has devolved into a stalemate defined by opposing forms of maritime coercion. The current standoff between the United States and Iran has settled into a delicate and dangerous equilibrium. While Iran utilizes drones, naval mines, and swarming small boats to disrupt energy flows, the United States has responded by blockading the blockaders, effectively cutting off traffic to and from Iranian ports.

This tactical cycle creates a constant state of uncertainty for global shipping. The Iranian toolkit is specifically designed to impose risk without necessitating a full-scale naval engagement that they might lose. Instead, they rely on low-cost, high-impact disruptions that force the U.S. Navy to expend significant resources on mine clearance, vessel escorts, and the suppression of naval assets.

• Iranian Tactics: Use of drones, naval mines, and swarming small boats to create uncertainty.
• U.S. Countermeasures: Escorting merchant shipping and blocking traffic to Iranian ports.
• Operational Goal: Iran seeks to disrupt energy flows; the U.S. seeks to maintain freedom of navigation.

The Divergent Calculus of Political Endurance

The conflict is increasingly defined by a struggle of political endurance rather than a simple contest of military capabilities. There is a profound divergence in how each side perceives the risks of the current trajectory. For the Iranian regime, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the conflict is viewed as existential. They appear to believe they can endure economic and military pressure longer than the United States can sustain the political cost of the war.

For the United States, the risk is primarily domestic and political. President Donald Trump faces a credibility trap: while the U.S. retains the capacity to suppress Iranian naval assets and clear the strait, the political fallout from even limited Iranian successes—such as the killing of U.S. ground troops—could be catastrophic. This creates a tension where threats of escalation must be balanced against the risk that carrying them out would deepen a conflict that domestic audiences may not support.

Ultimately, the situation demonstrates the complex nature of risk in the public sector, where decisions sit at the intersection of duty, politics, and the potential for catastrophic failure. As the Iranian leadership bets on the U.S. willingness to eventually seek an exit, the risk of a miscalculation grows. If Washington’s red lines are perceived as bluffs, it may inadvertently grant Tehran the very recognition it seeks to achieve through coercion.