Bulgaria parliamentary election

Rumen Radev cast his ballot in Sofia on Sunday morning, framing the vote as a chance to reclaim Bulgaria from oligarchs even as calling for renewed ties with Moscow rooted in historical gratitude.

The former fighter pilot, who stepped down as president in January to run, positioned himself as both pro-Bulgarian and pro-European, rejecting accusations of being pro-Russian despite his vocal opposition to military support for Ukraine and his emphasis on Russia’s role in liberating Bulgaria from Ottoman rule in 1878.

He has avoided direct confrontation with Western institutions, aligning with mainstream European positions in Brussels where EU funding remains critical for the bloc’s poorest member state, a contrast to the confrontational stance of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

In the days before the vote, Radev pushed back against claims of foreign alignment, insisting his stance was purely national and continental, while refusing to coalition with longtime rivals Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski, whom he accused of sitting atop an oligarchic “mafia state.”

Borissov, voting the same day, countered by attempting to link Radev to a corruption probe within his inner circle, underscoring the personal and institutional rancor defining Bulgaria’s fragmented politics.

The election marks the eighth parliamentary vote in five years, a cycle of instability that has left voters exhausted and open to promises of stability from Radev’s slick social media-driven campaign.

His message — combining anti-corruption pledges with economic relief — has resonated in a country of 6.5 million where wages remain low despite falling unemployment and rising life expectancy since EU accession in 2007 and eurozone entry in January.

Yet Bulgaria continues to lag behind peers in development metrics, and persistent concerns over vote-buying in past elections linger beneath the surface of renewed civic engagement.

The cost of living has surged since adopting the euro, contributing to the collapse of the prior government after protests over tax hikes and social security increases — a crisis that, alongside broader political dysfunction, now weighs as heavily on voters as foreign policy.

Polls indicated Radev’s newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party was on track for roughly 35% of the vote, a strong showing for a single party in recent years but still short of a majority, necessitating complex coalition talks.

Turnout was projected to reach about 60%, nearly double the 34% recorded in the June 2024 ballot, signaling a potential break from voter apathy amid deep frustration with entrenched parties.

The center-right GERB, led by Borissov, trailed at around 18%, while the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, headed by the sanctioned Delyan Peevski, too lagged, reflecting public weariness with figures long associated with state capture and graft.

As one 72-year-old metalworker put it after voting in Sofia, the country needs leaders who can govern rather than perpetuate endless electoral cycles without delivering results.

Radev’s appeal lies in his ability to speak to both nationalist sentiment and pragmatic governance, framing Russia not as an ideological ally but as a historical partner whose respect must be earned through equality — a nuance that allows him to avoid outright rupture with Brussels while challenging the liberal consensus.

His refusal to engage with Borissov or Peevski, despite their electoral strength, suggests a preference for ideological purity over pragmatic power-sharing, a stance that could prolong instability if no alternative coalition emerges.

The tension between his rhetoric of independence and Bulgaria’s material dependence on European aid creates a fundamental contradiction: a leader seeking to assert sovereignty while operating within a system that rewards compliance.

Whether his mandate translates into governability remains uncertain, especially if his anti-oligarch stance alienates potential partners without offering a viable path to replace their influence.

What does Radev mean by “mutual respect” with Russia?

He frames it as a relationship grounded in historical recognition of Russia’s 1878 role in liberating Bulgaria from Ottoman rule, insisting on equality rather than subordination, and distinguishing it from blind alignment.

This position allows him to appeal to nationalist sentiments while maintaining he is not pro-Russian in a geopolitical sense, a distinction he reiterated during the campaign.

It reflects a broader Balkan tendency to leverage historical narratives in foreign policy without committing to bloc-style alliances.

Why is voter turnout expected to double compared to 2024?

Polls suggest heightened engagement due to widespread frustration with repeated elections, perceived corruption among veteran politicians, and the immediate impact of the cost-of-living crisis following euro adoption.

The promise of stability from Radev’s campaign, combined with his anti-corruption messaging, has mobilized voters weary of political theater.

This shift reflects not just dissatisfaction with individuals but a broader demand for functional governance after years of instability.