Why is the incidence increasing so rapidly in Saxony despite vaccinations?
By Thomas Staudt
Dresden – The skyrocketing number of infections in some places is a shock, despite all predictions. The emerging development shows the force with which the fourth corona wave could also hit Saxony.
It is hard to believe that the numbers were much lower last year – even though there was no vaccination at the time. Why is that like that?
Brief review: Exactly one year ago, the incidence in the Saxon Switzerland-Eastern Ore Mountains district was 83.1. In Meißen the value was 58.3, in Chemnitz 78.8. Throughout Saxony it was 91.
At the moment the situation looks like this: District SOE 458.1, Meißen 344.5, Chemnitz 208.7. A total of four districts have an incidence of over 300. According to the Robert Koch Institute, the Saxony average is currently 253.9. Can this be?
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After all, around 57 percent of the Saxons are now fully vaccinated. So did vaccination do anything at all?
It has, says the Leipzig epidemiologist Markus Scholz (46). But: “The vaccination quota is not sufficient to compensate for the significantly higher infection rate caused by the delta variant.”
The severity of the fourth wave can still not be estimated
In addition, there is the negative influence of the autumn / winter season. The increase is so strong in Saxony because the vaccination rate is lower here compared to other federal states.
A look at the figures shows: While the curve for those infected with a full vaccination is currently below 50 and continues to fall, for those who have not been vaccinated or for people with only one vaccination it is well over 500 – i.e. around ten times as high. Ascending trend.
“In addition, people feel a false sense of security. Distances are not kept, masks are not worn – this leads to higher numbers of infections,” says the head of the Dresden University Clinic and Saxony’s clinic bed coordinator, Michael Albrecht (71).
Current corona situation in Saxony: an overview of incidences and hospital bed occupancy rates
So is the fourth wave going to be worse than expected? “Difficult to predict,” says epidemiologist Scholz, because “it is not entirely clear how quickly the vaccination against severe disease decreases.”
To remedy this, Saxony cleared the way for the third spade on Friday. From Monday onwards, all fully vaccinated Saxons aged 18 and over can get a booster. The only restriction: the last corona vaccination must be at least six months ago.
Cover photo: Image montage: dpa / Waltraud Grubitzsch / Christian Hüller