The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) publishes this Thursday, at 13.00 hoursa macro survey on the regional elections y municipal of May 28, which will include the voting estimates in the 12 communities where regional elections are held and the nine cities with the largest population, including Barcelona. This study will be followed by a ‘flash survey’ that the CIS will disseminate no later than May 22.
The poll this Thursday will be around 20,000 interviews and will include vote estimation and seat allocation data in Madrid’s community, Valencian Community, Aragon, Asturias, cantabria, Navarra, Castilla la Mancha, Estremadura, Murcia, The Rioja, baleares y Canary Islandsas well as the two autonomous cities: Ceuta y Melilla. In addition, the center chaired by José Félix Tezanos has carried out specific surveys on municipal elections in the municipalities with the largest populations.
A few hours from the campaign
In the macro-sounding prior to the 2019 municipal and regional elections, the CIS conducted surveys in the aforementioned communities and also in Castile and Leonwhich on this occasion is left out of the call, and in the cities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Santiago de Compostela y Vitoria. In the case of Barcelona, the CIS predicted the draw between There is Colau (Barcelona in Comú) and Ernest Maragall (ERC) that later took place at the polls.
As is tradition, the CIS will announce the results of its macro survey a few hours after the start of the electoral campaign, which starts at midnight from Thursday to Friday. Then it plans to carry out the aforementioned ‘flash survey’, a survey that will have to be published on Monday at the latest May 22ndsince the electoral law prohibits publishing, disseminating or reproducing electoral polls by any means of communication during the previous five days to the elections.
After the elections, the CIS will carry out a post-election poll in which he will ask the people interviewed about how they followed the election campaignif the surveys influenced their vote or if they would opt for the same party they voted for once the results were known.
The normal size of the sample for this type of survey is between 5,000 and 20,000 interviews, depending on whether it is a flash, pre-electoral or post-electoral study. This is the first time that the CIS will resort to the telephone interviews for these polls, since before the coronavirus pandemic the demoscopic institute only works with home interviews.