The figures from the State Health Office show that unvaccinated people in particular get Corona. SWR data journalist Nico Heiliger explains why the situation is more complex.
The number of Covid cases in the intensive care units rose in Baden-Württemberg by 8 to 139 within one day, as the State Health Office announced on Friday (as of 4 p.m.). The nationwide seven-day incidence rose to 87.3 (previous day: 83.7). The difference in this value is clear for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. If you only look at those whose vaccination series has been completed, new infections with the coronavirus were registered in 16.6 per 100,000 inhabitants within a week. For people without any vaccination or with incomplete vaccination, as well as cases without information on vaccination status, the value was 193.2.
SWR: The numbers are clear. Is this now the unvaccinated pandemic?
Nico Heiliger: If you look at these numbers, you can quickly get such an impression. How meaningful the very low incidence among those vaccinated is, for example, is difficult to assess. Since vaccinated people no longer have to be tested with rapid tests in order to be allowed to go to restaurants or cinemas, the question arises: Is there an above-average number of unreported cases there?
Does that mean that the numbers should be treated with caution?
We know that rapid tests during the third wave could hardly reveal any foci of infection. The large proportion of those infected is found by PCR tests, which are mainly used for symptoms and contact follow-up – regardless of whether they have been vaccinated or not. Thus, the number of unreported cases of vaccinated people should not be above average at this point in time.
However, if PCR tests are now used more and more frequently like rapid tests and vaccinated people do not have to be tested, the incidence of vaccinated people can lose its informative value. All of this shows we cannot evaluate the pandemic with a seven-day incidence or any other number alone. We need different indicators and, above all, more data.