Expensive oil pushes inflation 5.28%, highest in 13 years
Date 04 Mar. 2022 time 13:30
The Office of the National Education Commission points out that February inflation is up 5.28% on the back of higher oil and food prices. The trend continues to increase. along with Russia-Ukraine islands Cause of high energy costs Before revisiting inflation after March
Mr. Ronnarong Poonphiphat, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (Director General of the Office of the National Education Commission) revealed that the consumer price index of Thailand February 2022 is equal to 104.10 (Year 2019 = 100) compared to the same month of the previous year or headline inflation increased by 5.28% (YoY), mainly due to energy products including products in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category increased in line with production costs and raw material prices
In addition, the base price in February 2021 is the lowest in 2021, which has resulted in higher inflation calculations for this month. for core inflation (After deducting fresh food and energy) increased 1.80 percent (YoY) from 0.52 percent in the previous month.
However, headline inflation this month. which increased by 5.28% (YoY) due to energy products that directly and indirectly affect inflation by the price of products in the energy group Compared to the same month of 2021, an increase of 29.22% from 19.22%, especially fuel prices. and electric current increased quite a lot
including the price of products in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category Compared to the same month of 2021, an increase of 4.51% from 2.39% in the previous month, such as meat, eggs, fresh vegetables, food for consumption indoors and outdoors. and cooking utensils This was due to higher production costs and higher raw material prices. In addition, the 5.28 percent (YoY) inflation rate was also caused by the lowest base price in the same month last year in 2021.
“February inflation It is the highest rate in 13 years and is likely to rise by another 4-5% if oil prices continue to be high. and an average of over 100 USD per barrel This is because oil accounts for 62.26% in the inflation formula. In addition, the price of goods that the private sector signaled will increase. It also has to monitor how the Russo-Ukrainian war will prolong and how it affects world energy and raw material prices. believe that the Bank of Thailand and the government will follow up to implement various measures
for the producer price index February 2022, up 9.4 percent (YoY) from 8.7 percent in the previous month due to rising production costs and raw material prices in line with world market prices. especially the price of petroleum products Natural gas and related products In addition, the price base in 2021 is relatively low, causing the Producer Price Index to rise.
while the building materials price index increased by 6.7 percent (YoY) from 6.1 percent in the previous month. according to the cost of production and raw materials used in the production of construction materials especially steel, aluminum and oil. The overall consumer confidence index stabilized at the level of 44.6
Mr Ronnak said that although inflation this month will rise quite a lot. But there are other economic indicators that signal that the Thai economy is improving. (The latest data as of January 2022) The demand side is the amount of VAT collection. New registered motorcycles Commercial vehicle sales volume farmer income Real estate transaction tax collection and private investment increased
On the supply side, production capacity and the manufacturing production index rose as well. which these indicators This reflects that the Thai economy is moving in a good direction. This will generate income and increase purchasing power for businesses and people in the current economic situation.
However, headline inflation in March 2022 remained high in line with high energy prices. (fuel electricity cost) compared to the previous year This will result in higher prices of consumer goods as well. including products in the ready-to-eat food group and cooking utensils began to rise In addition, the base price in the beginning of 2021 is relatively low, which will result in an increase in headline inflation in another way.
However, products that have begun to decline include fresh food, especially pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits, as well as various government measures that are expected to continue. to reduce the burden of public expenses This will result in headline inflation at an appropriate level. by the Ministry of Commerce Inflation in 2022 is expected to remain risky and move in a wide range. Which will assess the situation and adjust the forecast to be appropriate from the previously set inflation this year at 0.7-2.4%, the median value of 1.5%, by looking at the situation in the first 3-4 months of the previous year Therefore, the forecast numbers after March can be reviewed.