UBS analyst David Vogt believes the supply disruptions Apple (NASDAQ:) experienced in the last quarter of 2022 had a “material” impact on November and December iPhone units.
According to UBS calculations, iPhone sales fell about 3% in October, 15% in November and almost 18% in December. Overall, the decline in CYQ422 is calculated at around 12%, which compares to a decline of ~6% in the first 9 months of CY22.
“We estimate that full-year iPhone sales were approximately 6% lower than our original sales forecast, with the gap widening significantly in the December quarter. We estimate that December quarter global sales were approximately 67 million units, approximately 15% lower than our estimate of 79 million units sold and market expectations of 74-75 million units,” Mr. Vogt said in a note to the client.
“About one-third of iPhone sales in any given year are in the United States, while about 20% are in China, and 20% in Europe. During the fourth quarter of 2002 , iPhone sales in the US were down just 1%, compared to around 12% in China and 30% in Europe.Given the relative strength of the US and weaker results in Europe, the United States accounted for almost 35% of sales, while Europe fell below 18%.
On a more positive note, the analyst believes that Apple still gained market share as the global smartphone market fell 14-15%.
UBS rates Apple stock with a “buy” rating and a target price of $180 per share.
Par Senad Karaahmetovic